Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
